Economist · Trade Analyst · Founder

The economics of a
shifting world order.

Independent research at the intersection of international trade, capital markets, and global macro policy. Founder of Osiria Research.

Trade Policy Macro Research Quant Analysis International Econ Energy Markets
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4
Research domains
2
Years researching
2
Active firms
11+
Posts published

Featured Research

All writing →
Quant · Original Model
Arabica Coffee Futures — SARIMA + GARCH Volatility Forecast
15 years of KC=F price history. Stationarity testing, seasonal decomposition, and a 12-month forward projection with GJR-GARCH conditional volatility. Built from scratch.
Applied Economics · June 2026
Trade · Geopolitics
The Malacca Dilemma — China's Energy Chokepoint
Over 20% of global maritime trade transits 1.7 miles of water. 102,500+ ships in 2025 alone. How a constraint here reshapes the second largest economy on earth.
Analysis · June 2026
Macro · Geopolitics
Iran Conflict — Who Benefits Without Fighting
Russia's fiscal windfall. China's discounted oil. The six indirect advantages accruing to competitors of the West.
June 2026
Macro · Fixed Income
Japan's Bond Market & Global Ripples
The carry trade unwind, capital flow rotation, and what rising JGB yields mean for U.S. Treasuries.
June 2026
Trade · Policy
Trade Shocks in Distorted Economies
NBER summer institute: fragmentation is selective, strategic competition is replacing cooperation, and smaller economies are at risk of marginalization.
June 2026
About

Economist.
Analyst.
Builder.

I study the forces reshaping the global economy — trade policy, energy markets, capital flows, and the geopolitical fault lines that move them. My work sits at the intersection of rigorous quantitative analysis and real-world application.

Currently building Osiria Capital and Osiria Research. Focused on international economics, macro strategy, and the emerging structure of global trade post-2020.

Graduate Studies in Applied Economics — In Progress.

International Trade Macro Strategy Econometrics Energy Markets Time Series GARCH / SARIMA
Experience
Founder
Osiria Capital
2023 — Present
Founder
Osiria Research
2026 — Present
Business Development Analyst
Gridworks
2024 — 2026
M.S. Applied Economics
In Progress
2026 — 2028
B.A. Economics
University of New Mexico
Class of 2023

Latest Writing

Arabica Coffee Futures — SARIMA + GARCH Volatility Forecast
Quant Jun 2026
GARCH Models for Volatility in High-Frequency Trading Environments
Quant Jun 2026
The Malacca Dilemma — China's Energy Chokepoint
Trade Jun 2026
Trade Shocks in Distorted Economies
Trade Jun 2026
Iran Conflict — Who Benefits Without Fighting
Macro Jun 2026
Japan's Bond Market & Global Ripples
Macro Jun 2026
Yen Dynamics — BOJ Paralysis & Middle East Spillover
Macro Jun 2026
Quantitative Easing as a Global Shockwave
Macro Jun 2026
Airlines & Energy — Are Asian Carriers Hedged Enough?
Energy Jun 2026
Order Flow Imbalance & High Frequency Trading
Quant Jun 2026
Econophysics — Entropy as a Volatility Predictor
Quant Jun 2026

Currently

Reading
International Economics
Menzie Chinn & Douglas Irwin
Listening to
Jazz Noir
Various Artists
Working on
Osiria Research
Research Infrastructure
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